Population forecasts

Key points

  • Taking account of anticipated housing provision, the forecast population of Herefordshire in 2026 is 193,600, an 8% increase from 2009. 
  • The number of under 16s in Herefordshire is forecast to continue to fall until 2016, although at a slightly slower rate than in recent years.  Numbers are then expected to stabilise at around 29,000 (6% below 2009 levels).
  • Herefordshire’s population of 16-64 year-olds is expected to fall steadily as the post-war ‘baby-boomers’ move into retirement age. There are forecast to be 5% fewer people aged 16-64 in the county by 2026 than in 2009.
  • The number of people aged 65+ in Herefordshire is forecast to continue to increase, but more rapidly than in recent years, and is expected to be 57% higher in 2026 than in 2009. In particular, the number of people aged 85+ is expected to almost double, from 5,400 in 2009 to 10,200 in 2026; This group makes by far the greatest demands on health and social care and is at greatest risk of isolation due to living alone and in poor housing.

Population forecasts for Herefordshire for the period 2007 to 2026 are produced by Herefordshire Council Research Team based on the ONS 2006 mid-year estimates. The forecasts for 2007 to 2009 have since been superseded by the ONS mid-year estimates, which can be found on the main population page. The full set of forecasts can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet from the box below, along with five documents:

  • an overview of what the forecasts mean for the future population of Herefordshire;
  • answers to some of the questions that may be asked about the forecasts;
  • separate reports focusing on forecast numbers of births and school-age children, and the reasons behind expected changes;
  • a detailed technical report of the methodology used to produce the forecasts.

Please note: In May 2010, ONS published revisions to the mid-year population estimates for 2002 to 2008 - ie the figures that these forecasts are based on. The revisions will have an impact on these forecasts, but it has not yet been possible to quantify to what extent. The small downward revisions to Herefordshire's population are not evenly distributed across all age groups, so the forecasts for different age groups will be affected in different ways. In particular the 20-24 year-old age group, which saw the largest change, mainly due to an improved way of estimating moves of students to and from university.

Please contact us at researchteam@herefordshire.gov.uk or by calling 01432 260498 if you need any further details about, or analysis of, the forecasts and we will do our best to help.

You may also be interested in the independent quality assurance of the methodology used to produce the population forecasts - as well as projections of pupil numbers produced by the Children & Young People's directorate.  This was undertaken by Dr. Peter Boden of Edge Analytics, and the reports can be found on the main Herefordshire Council website; the population forecasts are addressed in the Assurance 1 report.

Herefordshire Population Forecasts

 

Last updated: 10 May 2012