Population forecasts predict 68 percent rise in elderly

Herefordshire Council has published population forecasts for the county to 2026, which show that the county's population of older people will continue to grow, while the number of children is expected to decline until 2016, before stabilising at this lower level.

Herefordshire Council's research team produces projections and forecasts of the future resident population of the county of Herefordshire. These are based on Office for National Statistics estimates and take account of nationally predicted trends in fertility, mortality and migration, as well as the likely number of new houses in the county.

The results are used to help plan for the future, to make sure there are the right levels of services for different groups in the population.

Key results from the newly published 2006-based principal population forecasts suggest that the total population in 2026 will have grown by nine percent from 2006, but that the number of under-16 year olds will continue to fall until 2016.

The number of 16 to 64 year olds will continue to increase very slightly until 2011, but will then begin to fall steadily as the post-war 'baby-boomers' move into retirement age and are replaced by smaller groups of young adults. By 2026 this age group will have reduced to 103,600 people (five per cent fewer than in 2006).

Whilst the younger population is declining, the number of people aged 65 and over is forecast to continue increasing, but more rapidly than in recent years. By 2026 the number of Herefordshire residents of this age is forecast to be 68 per cent higher than in 2006. In particular the number of people aged 85 and over is expected to more than double from 4,800 in 2006 to 10,200 in 2026.

Councillor June French, cabinet member for corporate, customer services and human resources, said: ""Herefordshire Council is continually planning for the future and such population forecasts are a very important part of that planning process."

The population forecasts will be used by organisations and agencies across the county to plan commercial and public services. They are available on the council's website www.herefordshire.gov.uk/research.